Michael Patrick Leahy


President Trump has received a significant bump in the polls in the aftermath of last week’s Republican National Convention (RNC), jumping to a three-point lead in the national popular vote and a seven-point lead in key battleground states in the Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll released Sunday.

The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll shows that President Trump leads Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden 48 percent to 45 percent in the national popular vote, a one point bump from the two point lead the same poll found the president had in its survey released at the beginning of August. The president now also leads Biden by seven points in key battleground states, a two point bump from the five point lead he had in the same survey.

The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between Wednesday August 26 and Friday August 28 and has a 2.5 percent margin of error. Wednesday was the third day of the RNC, which ended on Thursday evening with the president’s acceptance speech. (The poll’s methodology description states, “The national party identification turnout model is: Democrats = 37 percent; Republicans = 35 percent; and Independents = 28 percent.”)

The Morning Consult Poll, conducted on Friday, August 29, the day after the convention ended, showed the president received a four point bump from the RNC. He now trails Biden by six points, 50 percent to 44 percent, compared to the ten points he trailed Biden by, 52 percent to 42 percent in the same poll conducted just prior to the RNC:

President Donald Trump needed a convention bounce — and he got one, emerging from the Republican National Convention with an improved standing against Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, fueled by gains among white voters and those in the suburbs, though he still trails the former vice president nationwide.

A new Morning Consult poll conducted Friday that asked 4,035 likely voters which candidate they would pick found Biden leading Trump by 6 percentage points, 50 percent to 44 percent. It marked a 4-point improvement from his standing heading into the convention on Aug. 23, when Biden led 52 percent to 42 percent. Friday’s poll had a 2-point margin of error, compared with a 1-point margin of error for responses gathered among 4,810 likely voters on Aug. 23.

The Real Clear Politics Average of Polls currently shows Biden with a 6.9 percent lead in the national popular vote and a 2.7 percent lead in the battleground states of Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona.

The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll shows that Trump leads Biden among white voters by a 53 percent to 45 percent margin. The president’s support among black and Hispanic voters has increased.

Nineteen percent of black voters support President Trump, while 77 percent support former Vice President Biden. This represents an 11 point increase of support among black voters for the president, compared to the 8 percent support he received in the 2016 presidential election.

Thirty nine percent of Hispanic voters support President Trump, while only 50 percent support former Vice President Biden, a ten point increase in support among Hispanic voters for the president, compared to the 28 percent he received in the 2016 presidential election.

The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll also showed that the president leads Biden in six key battleground states–Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin–by seven points, 49 percent to 42 percent, with ten percent undecided.

The poll also narrowed in battleground states with larger state-specific polls, which showed the following:

Florida – Popular Vote (500 likely voters with a margin of error of 4 percent)

  • Trump = 47%
  • Biden = 44%
  • Undecided = 9%

Minnesota – Popular Vote (450 likely voters in with a margin of error of 5 percent)

  • Trump = 48%
  • Biden = 45%
  • Undecided = 7%

New Hampshire – Popular Vote (400 likely voters in with a margin of error of 5 percent)

  • Trump = 47%
  • Biden = 43%
  • Undecided = 10%

In the electoral college vote projection, the poll projects the president will increase upon his 2016 election day electoral college margin of 306 to 232 over Hillary Clinton by picking up the states of Minnesota (10 electoral college votes) and New Hampshire (4 electoral college votes), while holding on to all the states he won in 2016, though possibly losing the one electoral college vote from Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, bringing him to 319 electoral college votes to Biden’s 219 electoral college votes.

The most recent Democracy Institute/Sunday Express electoral college projection contains bad news for Biden in Wisconsin, which the early August poll projected would be the only state to switch from Trump in 2016 to the former vice president and Democratic nominee in 2020.

In Sunday’s electoral college projection, the Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll now projects Wisconsin as an electoral college win for President Trump.

“Wisconsin is the last of the swing rust belt states to reach a tipping point on law and order,” Democracy Institute Polling Director Patrick Basham told Breitbart News in an exclusive interview.

As Breitbart News reported on Thursday, the violent Black Lives Matter riots that began in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last Sunday night after police in that city shot a 29-year-old black man, Jacob Blake, in the back seven times after he resisted arrest appear to have played a significant role in changing voter attitudes in Wisconsin towards President Trump and away from his Democratic challenger, Biden.

Even before the Kenosha riots, public approval for the Black Lives Matter in Wisconsin dropped precipitously in the two months between the Marquette Law School Poll conducted in early June, which showed Black Lives Matter protests enjoyed a 61 percent approval to 36 percent disapproval rating among likely voters, and early August, when the same poll showed Black Lives Matter protests approval ratings dropped to 48 percent, while disapproval increased to 48 percent, a drop in net approval of 25 points.

Law and order/riots/violence was the single top issue on the minds of poll respondents, with 37 percent identifying it as “the most important issue” to them:

Q “Which issue is most important to you?”

  • Law & order/riots/violence = 37%
  • Economy/jobs = 27%
  • Education = 13%
  • Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic = 13%
  • Immigration = 10%

The poll documented changing attitudes towards Black Lives Matter, law and order/riots/violence, and defunding police, as poll respondents’ answers to the following questions indicate:

Q “Which phrase better fits your own thinking about race in America?”

  • Black Lives Matter = 26%
  • All Lives Matter = 74%

Q “Do you approve or disapprove of the removal of historic monuments and statues because certain individuals or groups find them offensive?”

  • Approve 15%
  • Disapprove 79%
  • Don’t Know 6%

Q “Do the violent protests in Wisconsin make you more or less likely to vote for Trump?”

  • More likely = 26%
  • Less likely = 10%
  • Makes no difference = 64%

Q “Has President Trump’s approach to the ongoing protests and riots been too tough, just right under the circumstances, or not tough enough?”

  • Too tough 23%
  • Just right 33%
  • Not tough enough 44%

Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the protests and riots?”

  • Approve = 62%
  • Disapprove = 38%

Q “Has Joe Biden been sufficiently critical of the violent rioting?”

  • Yes = 34%
  • No = 64%

Q “Should government prioritise law & order on city streets or prioritise improving relations between Black Americans and the police?”

  • Law & order = 72%
  • Improving relations between Black Americans & police = 26%

Q “Do you support de-funding your local police department?”

  • Yes = 16%
  • No = 75%

The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll also found a huge enthusiasm gap between Trump voters and Biden voters, as these two poll questions and responses indicate:

Q. “Are you strongly or very enthusiastic about your choice of candidate?”

  • Trump voters = 82%
  • Biden voters = 40%

Q. “Is your vote for Trump/Biden a positive vote for your candidate or a negative vote against his opponent?

  • Trump voters: positive vote = 85%; negative vote = 15%
  • Biden voters: positive vote = 34%; negative vote = 66%

Notably, only three percent of Trump voters said their vote could change before election day, while nine percent of Biden voters said their vote could change before election day.

Among voters who initially identified as undecided, the poll found a significant number of “shy” Trump voters. Seventy-two percent of these undecided voters said “a relative, friend, or coworker plan[s] to vote for Trump,” while 28 percent said a relative friend or coworker did not plan to vote for Trump.

Only 25 percent of Trump voters said they were comfortable with their relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how they will vote, while 86 percent of Biden voters said they were comfortable with their relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how they will vote.

Fifty-seven percent of poll respondents believe President Trump will be re-elected, and 66 percent believe President Trump will win the first debate.

President Trump fared well in national job approval, with 52 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving. The breakdown by party, age, religion, and ethnicity was:

Party ID – Trump’s National Job Approval

  • Republican = 86%
  • Democrat = 28%
  • Independent = 49%

Race/ethnicity – Trump’s National Job Approval

  • White = 58%
  • Black = 42%
  • Hispanic = 46%

Gender – Trump’s National Job Approval

  • Men = 54%
  • Women = 48%

Religion – Trump’s National Job Approval

  • Evangelical = 90%
  • Protestant = 62%
  • Catholic = 64%
  • Jewish = 33%
  • Atheist = 10%

Age – Trump’s National Job Approval

  • 65 years & over = 58%
  • 45-64 years = 64%
  • 30-44 years = 45%
  • 18-29 years = 38%

Marital Status – Trump’s National Job Approval

  • Married 63%
  • Single 31%

The Republican National Convention provided a much greater boost for the Trump-Pence ticket than the Democratic National Convention did for the Biden-Harris ticket.

Twenty-one percent of poll respondents said the Republican National Convention made them “more likely” to support the Trump-Pence ticket, while only eight percent of poll respondents said the Democratic National Convention made them “more likely” to support the Biden-Harris ticket.

Sixty-seven percent of poll respondents believed “the economy [is] rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced shutdown,” and 59 percent of respondents trusted Trump to do the best job handling the economy, while 41 trusted Biden.

Only 44 percent of respondents approved of President Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, while 48 percent disapproved.

By more than a two-to-one margin, 67 percent to 31 percent, poll respondents said that Trump will do a better job of standing up to China than Biden.

By a two-to-one margin, 67 percent to 33 percent, poll respondents want their local school to reopen soon.

Fifty-nine percent of poll respondents “think Joe Biden is experiencing some form of cognitive decline, such as the early stages of dementia.”

Forty-eight percent of poll respondents say their “opinion of Joe Biden’s mental acuity” makes them less likely to vote for him.

Seventy percent of poll respondents say Trump is a strong leader, while 24 percent say Biden is a strong leader.

Biden has the edge in voter perceptions of consensus building, with 55 percent of respondents describing him as a “consensus builder,” a term only 20 percent apply to President Trump.

Fifty-nine percent say Biden is a likeable person, while only 32 percent say Trump is a likeable person.

Sixty-two percent say Biden, who is 77 years old, is too old to be president, while only 35 percent say President Trump, who is 74 years old, is too old to be president.

With barely two months until the November 3 presidential election, the most recent Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll results suggest that momentum in the race is moving swiftly towards President Trump and away from former Vice President Biden, and that reactions to the violent Black Lives Matter protests is the most significant explanation for that change.

Author: Michael Patrick Leahy

Source: Breitbart: Trump Bump After Convention: POTUS Jumps to Lead in National Poll

Ninety percent of Evangelical Christian voters support the re-election of President Donald Trump according to the Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll released on Tuesday.

As Breitbart News reported, the poll’s head to head matchup showed Trump and presumptive Democrat nominee Joe Biden in a popular vote tie, 47 to 47%, with Trump lead projected in the Electoral College vote 309 to 229.

The poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between July 1 and July 3 and has a 2.5 percent margin of error.

Cross tab details obtained exclusively by Breitbart News showed Trump with near unanimous support from Evangelical Christians, with 90 percent saying they will vote to re-elect the president while only eight percent said they will vote for Biden.

The complete breakdown of presidential preferences by religious affiliation from the poll is as follows:

Evangelicals: 90 percent Trump, 8 percent Biden

Protestants: 56 percent Trump, 42 percent Biden

Catholics: 52 percent Trump, 44 percent Biden

Jewish: 28 percent Trump, 61 percent Biden

Atheists: 8 percent Trump, 90 percent Biden

When asked about religious affiliation, 27 percent of respondents self-identified as Evangelical, 25 percent identified as Protestants, 23 percent identified as Catholic, three percent identified as Jewish, 14 percent identified as Atheists, and eight percent had no affiliation.

Seventy-eight percent of self-identified Evangelicals were White, seven percent were Black, and nine percent were Hispanic.

In the 2016 presidential election, 81 percent of the “white born again evangelical” vote went to Donald Trump, according to Pew Research.

As Breitbart News reported in 2017:

In his new book, The Day Christians Changed America, Dr. George Barna, a leading researcher on the intersection of faith, culture, and politics argues that “Christian conservatives put [Donald] Trump in the White House.”

“When all the hyperbole is stripped away, and the countless actors who played minor roles are done pontificating about how it was they who shaped the November [2016] outcome, the empirical evidence shows that it was Christian conservatives — especially an unheralded group known as SAGE Cons [an acronym for Spiritually Active, Governance Engaged Conservatives] — who pushed the Trump-Pence tandem to the top of the mountain,” Barna says.

SAGE Cons, Barna says, while constituting ten percent of all voters, cast their ballots for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton by a 93 percent to one percent margin, and that overwhelming margin turned the tide for Trump in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, and North Carolina.

According to Barna, 17 percent of 2016 voters were Evangelicals, ten percent in the group he called “SAGE Cons” and seven percent in the group he called “Evangelicals but not SAGE Cons.”

“SAGE Cons” had a 91 percent turnout rate and voted for Trump over Clinton by a 93 percent to one percent margin. “Evangelicals but not SAGE Cons” had a 61 percent turnout rate and voted for Trump over Clinton by a 79 percent to 18 percent margin.

In an exclusive interview with Breitbart News in 2019, Jerry Falwell, Jr., president of Liberty University, predicted that President Trump would win more of the Evangelical Christian vote in 2020 than he did in 2016:

Jerry Falwell Jr., president of Liberty University, predicted an increase in Evangelical voters supporting President Donald Trump in 2020’s presidential election, joining SiriusXM’s Breitbart News Sunday for an interview with host Matt Boyle.

“I think 83 percent of Evangelicals voted for him [in 2016], and I think in 2020 it’ll be an even higher percentage,” he explained.

Falwell Jr. went on, “Even Evangelicals were disillusioned by the moderate Republican administrations of the last few decades. They voted on social issues back in those days, and they finally realized that there was never really going to be any change on social issues, so they stopped voting on social issues, and instead now they vote on the same issues that all average Americans who supported Trump vote on: bringing jobs back to this country and fair trade deals.”

More recently, Vice President Pence told Breitbart News last week that the right to life –an issue of highest importance to Evangelical Christians–is among the important conservative issues that will continue to come before a Supreme Court that may see a number vacancies over the next four years:

Vice President Mike Pence told Breitbart News exclusively that he and President Donald Trump consider the U.S. Supreme Court one of, if not the most, important issue in the upcoming presidential election, saying there may be nothing that rises to the level of appointing justices to the highest court in the land.

Asked during an exclusive interview on Thursday that aired on Breitbart News Saturday on SiriusXM 125 the Patriot Channel about the possibility of several vacancies in the next presidential term, Pence said he and Trump know how important this is to many Americans.

“There may be no issue more important to the life of the nation than the destiny of the Supreme Court,” Pence said. “As we learned in the recent disappointing decision on the right to life, I hear conservatives around the country understand now more than ever that we need four more years of President Donald Trump in the White House. We’ve confirmed more than 200 judges to our federal courts, and that includes two justices to the Supreme Court, and I can tell you that each and every one of them are exactly the kind of conservative jurists that President Trump promised to appoint in the election of 2016.”

Some recent polls have shown a different trend among Evangelicals, as Politico reported in May:

A sudden shift in support for Donald Trump among religious conservatives is triggering alarm bells inside his reelection campaign, where top aides have long banked on expanding the president’s evangelical base as a key part of their strategy for victory this November.

The anxiety over Trump’s standing with the Christian right surfaced after a pair of surveys by reputable outfits earlier this month found waning confidence in the administration’s coronavirus response among key religious groups, with a staggering decline in the president’s favorability among white evangelicals and white Catholics. Both are crucial constituencies that supported Trump by wide margins in 2016 and could sink his reelection prospects if their turnout shrinks this fall.

The polls paint a bleak picture for Trump, who has counted on broadening his religious support by at least a few percentage points to compensate for weakened appeal with women and suburban populations. One GOP official said the dip in the president’s evangelical support also appeared in internal party polling, but disputed the notion that it had caused panic. Another person close to the campaign described an April survey by the Public Religion Research Institute, which showed a double-digit decline in Trump’s favorability among white evangelicals (-11), white Catholics (-12) and white mainline protestants (-18) from the previous month, as “pretty concerning.”

In a political landscape where poll results are increasingly seen as more of a vehicle to establish a political narrative than as an honest attempt to measure true voter sentiment, the results of the Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll suggest that a Trump-friendly counter narrative backed by substantive survey results is developing.

Author: Michael Patrick Leahy

Source: Breitbart: Poll: 90 Percent of Evangelicals Support Donald Trump’s Re-Election

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